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WPT Championship

Wednesday, June 25 2003 10:48 PM EDT

Contributed by: scottro

Scattered Thoughts Before It's Over

Well, after the completely misquoted Teddy KGB in rounders, I thought I'd make a few notes here and call it a night. I didn't keep notes tonight as I really wasn't interested in this one as much.

The Big Hand was interesting, but not out of the ordinary at all. The only bad part was Alan's call with [J][J]. Doyle makes a Doyle-type raise, Ted reads him and moves all-in with a decent hand to isolate what he thinks is a weaker hand, and Alan calls. I hate the call, but whatever.

Alan is a bluff monster, and plays his bluffs well, but he made so many horrible plays (mostly bad calls) that I just don't have a lot of respect for his game.

Kirill was also an excellent bluffer, but some of his calls were pretty suspect as well.

Ah well. So, the first WPT season is over. I enjoyed it in spite of my constant bashing of the commentary and players. It's so great to have poker on TV. Watching Vince is mostly painful, but it seems that Mike has improved greatly over the first few shows. If they replace Vince next year, they'll inprove a very good show to a great show (unless they pick some idiot who's worse than Vince, but that's hard to imagine). A good friend suggested Gabe Kaplan, and I think that would be excellent. He knows poker and is an excellent commentator. Phil Hellmuth, if he could stop talking about himself so much, would be another great choice IMO. Another would be Jesse May. I'm sure I'm dreaming, though.

So, I've enjoyed the great discussion and conversation here. Andy has created an excellent site, and I hope he keeps it up for next season.

77,
scottro
www.scottro.com

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	Ted's play with AJ was terrible
	Authored by: AndyBloch on Wednesday, June 25 2003 @ 11:18 PM EDT
	I haven't watched the episode yet, but I'd heard about this hand. The following is an edited version of comments I'd posted on rec.gambling.poker. Ted's play with [A][J] was a terrible play for a tournament, and a questionable play if it were a ring game. Doyle had made a pretty basic re-steal attempt -- maybe he misread a tell, or maybe Alan had been raising so many hands that this move has positive EV on average with [Q][8]. Ted might have picked up a tell that Doyle was weak, or knew that Doyle was likely to make a re-steal with a weak hand -- but either way, [A][J] is not strong enough to call in this spot in a tournament. With 5 players left, here's what the prize pool looked like, after subtracting 5th place : 1 $891k 2 $386k 3 $133k 4 $40k 5 $0 The total money still at risk was $1450k, and there were T5550k in chips. If all players had equal stacks, chips would be worth 26% of their face value. Ted's last chip is worth $40k when the next player busts, then it's value goes up. It's net present value is $40kP₄+$93kP₃ + $253k*P₂, where P₄, P₃, and P₂ are the probabilities that Ted can make it to 4, 3, and 2 handed (respectively) if he folds the current hand. I don't know the chip counts at the time, but I'd put these lower bounds on the probabilities: P₄> 3/4, P₃>1/2, P₂>1/4. This would be the case if Alan had a huge lead and all the other players were equal (neglecting position). So I'd say Ted's last chip is worth at least $140k, and his total stack is worth about $200k. If Ted calls, Alan folds, and Ted beats Doyle, Ted's equity becomes maybe $300k. Ted is laying about 2:1 on his hand in tournament equity, even though the pot is laying him better than even money. Unless Ted sees Doyle's cards and knows he has Doyle dominated with something like [A][X] or [J][6], Ted shouldn't call even if there were no other players still in the hand. He has to be dead certain that Alan is going to fold and that Phil won't wake up with a hand in the blind. (If Ted was an amateur who was afraid that he'd get outplayed, gambling here might be a good idea.) Phil Ivey must have loved being on the receiving end of this gift, making up for what happened at Foxwoods when he went broke in 4^th place with [A♣][Q♣] against Howard's [K][K]. [ Reply to This ]

	Ted's play with AJ was terrible
	Authored by: scottro on Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 09:58 AM EDT
	Well, upon more thought and explanation from Andy, I can see that I still have so much to learn. Thanks for taking the time to break this down into numbers, Andy. I was looking at it from a simple, psychological viewpoint, not a tournament or probability perspective. I know AJo is a weak hand in tournament play, and it's difficult to make this call when someone is all-in and a call puts you all-in as well. Let me ask you: If Ted had a much bigger stack, would he be correct to make a big re-raise to isolate Doyle, figuring Doyle was on a bluff, or is mucking still the best play? This is where I was coming from on this hand. I thought Ted just had a read on Doyle and called, sure that his AJo was in front. I don't think he counted on Alan to call, and with all the action, I don't think he was concerned with Phil at all. Also, what do you think of the call with JJ here? I didn't like it at all, but maybe I'm missing something. 77 [ Reply to This ]

	Ted's play with AJ was terrible
	Authored by: jacksup on Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 11:19 AM EDT
	Hey Andy, Could you explain the "last chip equity" calculation? I came up with about the same number you did for Ted's tournament EV by just estimating his chances of finishing first, second, etc. But I don't see what is meant by his last chip being worth $140k. You're not suggesting that if he had only one chip left he would be worth $140k, right? He'd be so likely to bust next that he'd hardly be worth anything. Please help. And best of luck on next year's WPT (though I must warn you, I'm planning on winning the Aruba event). Matt [ Reply to This ]

	Last Chip Equity
	Authored by: AndyBloch on Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 01:40 PM EDT
	Both approaches are equivalent mathematically and should reach the same answer. The reason I use think about the equity of my last chip is more mental then mathematical -- the arithmetic is probably easier without it. The idea that my last chip has extra value emphasizes the non-linearity of the value of chips and the importance of survival in the late stages of a tournament. But the value of your last chip is really quite fluid -- it depends on the number of chips you have, and the number of chips your opponents have, and how likely they will go broke before you -- and it can change even when you're not involved in a hand. I guess the concept is least useful when you have a medium-sized stack or larger. The concept is actually most useful when you do have a tiny stack. If you have just enough to make it to the blinds, and someone calls all-in in front of you, your EV is basically the same whether you have one chip or 4 chips when there's a major jump in prize money. If Ted had only one T1000 chip left in this hand (before calling), that one chip would be worth around $5,000, depending on how likely Doyle was to get called. If Ted had two chips, they would be worth only slightly more than one chip. In such a situation, the short stack's probability of moving up in the money is primarily dependent on the outcome of the current hand -- so the short stack can look at the situation as though his last chip has extra value roughly equal to the probability that a player busts times the increase in prize money. A medium stack has a significant chance of moving up several spots, making the calculation more complicated and the concept less helpful, as it was in this instance. [ Reply to This ]

	Scattered Thoughts Before It's Over
	Authored by: Anonymous on Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 12:05 AM EDT
	scottro, you getting lazy on ME now? 77 words? Take some vitamins, boy! ------- Okay, I missed much of the first hour, here are my notes from there: Alan makes a nice bet with the [8♣][2♣], but was 200K too low? How can Kirell not come over the top of Alan with a [Q] and a [Q][9][9] board? Is he thinking check-raise the turn? Alan screwed that up by checking behind... Kirill should NEVER have shown that hand at the end- let Alan wonder... unless Kirill was setting up a play sequence down the road? While I was watching the infamous [J][J]/[Q][8]/[A][J] hand, I was thinking to myself (influenced by seeing the cards, I'm sure, but still...) "here's the thought process going on. Ted sees Doyle's all-in reraise of Alan's 100K as an overbet of the pot. Ted plays with Doyle a lot, figures Doyle for making a move and calls all-in with [A][J]off." Then, Alan had one of two thought processes: "Ted knows Doyle and Doyle is famous for making pressure moves. If Ted wasn't involved, I'd call Doyle pretty quickly. Ted is coming under Doyle without a big pair. My Jacks are good, I can call." or... "They both could be making a move. I'm got both of them well-covered. I'll chance that my Jacks are good or could catch." Phil Ivey's slowplay checking with Aces, four kicker on the flop AND turn was interesting... does the 140K river bet serve any purpose (too late to get called by anything but a better hand? Or not?) other than to keep Phil from showing the hand? Kirell's 100K raise with [A♣][K♣] makes Phil go all in with [A][Q]off? Was Kirell showing the same aggressiveness earlier in the tournament with lower hands, that went with this type of raise? Mike Sexton- a late semi-apology for the "Tiger Woods" fiasco of a few months ago. Phil DOES look like Tiger a litte, displayed a similar demeanor when he busted out (maybe even less emotion than Tiger).... so I officially let that one go now! I think Kirell HAD to bet his [7][6]off when the flop came [A♠][8♠][10♦]. Kirell bets 150K turn... and Alan calls?? Then Kirell makes a GREAT move on the river flush card, which he doesn't have any part of.... lots of guts. Oh, Mike S says Kirell is a "heads-up specialist" ? Maybe that explains it. Kirell takes another pot with an all-in bluff bet on the river.... gutsy, but will it come back to bite him? Can Alan adjust? Ted Forrest calls Kirell a "very tight and solid player"... ? tight? Yep, Kirell gets sucked in by Alan's slowplay of the set of Queens and the 100K bet on the turn with the house... Did Kirell's play change after that? Seemed that way to me, but can't be sure about what hands we missed offcamera. Kirell and Alan raised and played a lot of the smaller hands, looking to catch the opponent in a trap. Doyle would have been proud? The play of these two made me think of a chess match- planning moves far ahead, using past moves to set up changes in direction later, moves/countermoves over multiple hands... we REALLY need a hand count to determine how far out they were planning. I didn't like Kirell's call of Alan's turn bet (with trips) when the [8]'s paired, with only a pair of [3]'s. Did Kirell see Alan as loose/super aggressive? Kirell's Big SLick vs. Alan's [Q♠][9♠]. the river bet by Kirell of 200K, how can Alan even THINK about calling? Man, the strategy and thought process for these people is so far above my head, it's dizzying.... or, they were both drunk! Why didn't Kirell reraise Alan's button raise to 100K, with K6h?? Don't you want to slow him down a bit here? Or maybe not, if you think you can outplay Alan post-flop... I was REALLY surprised when Alan checked the [5♠][7♠][4♣][6♥] board with a pair of 5's... AND they both check the river. (sit down, you may not believe this)- a GOOD Vince VP quote "..changed to a totally different mood". Granted, it was post-play, but at least he said SOMETHING that went with the game... How could NEITHER player make a move on the river when the [A♥] made Broadway AND a flush? Alan with two pair, Kirell with [K][4]off... SOMEONE has to take a shot at this, don't they? Oh, VVP back to normal- "nice value bet by Alan" ... yeah, easy to say when you can see the cards and KNOW that the 3 overcards aren't a problem. And THEN Vince wimps when Kirell raises, saying "..THAT'S why you don't make a value bet..." Vince, look up the definition of "value bet" please. Uh oh, it's the "WPT 10:58 rule". I turned to my friend, who was commenting on Kirell catching the straight, and said "Alan wins with a full house". I could have BET that freeroll, without even knowing that Alan won the tournament, because it was 10:58. I KNEW the full house was coming (even though I didn't know it beforehand). I had to explain the 10:58 rule to my friend... Well, what a great few months of poker television- DEFINATELY a watershed series! As much as I've censoreded about things, and as much as I'd gladly stuff a baby porcupine down Vince's throat after all of his inane comments, I'd like to thank the people who conceptualized and executed the WPT series, along with the Travel Channel. Heck, I'll even thank you, Vince, for giving us such a great lightning rod! This should really push the production company doing the 2003 WSOP for ESPN. We'll see what WPT does in response to the 7 days of shows from ESPN, starting in 2 weeks. I'll consolidate responses from the "WPT suggestions" threads in a week or two, put it back out here for final approval before I forward all of our thoughts to the World Poker Tour. Andy, I second scottro's thank you for this site. I've tried pointing people here with my posts on other forums.... Good night, everyone! Easy "wish I was getting paid by the word" E [ Reply to This ]

	Andy, thanks for cleaning this up
	Authored by: Easy E on Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 12:08 PM EDT
	I kept trying to post in Plain Old Text, the HTML kept showing up.... --- It's not a good sign when I have to spend MORE time watching TV and not playing.... [ Reply to This ]

	Andy, thanks for cleaning this up
	Authored by: AndyBloch on Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 12:23 PM EDT
	No problem. I have the software set to convert a new comment to html when you preview it, even if you originally selected text mode. If you manually change the post mode to "Plain Old Text" after clicking "Preview", the formatting will get screwed up. I'm thinking about changing how this works, but I'm not sure what's the best way. [ Reply to This ]

	Scattered Thoughts Before It's Over
	Authored by: propsero on Monday, July 07 2003 @ 01:13 AM EDT
	By the way, don't know if anyone noticed but the NY Post included an offhand reference to "10:58 rule" (although they didn't name it): http://www.nypost.com/sports/37167.htm --- http://loveandcasinowar.com \| news on the world of poker and gambling [ Reply to This ]

	Scattered Thoughts Before It's Over
	Authored by: propsero on Thursday, June 26 2003 @ 03:46 AM EDT
	Yeah, on that [7][6] vs [K][7] hand -- I think that was Alan's worst play of the episode. As a refresher for those of you with bad memories: Alan [K][7]o, limps in for $25k. Kirill [7][6]o, calls. Flop comes [A][10][8], two spades. Kirill checks. Alan bets $50k. Kirill smooth-calls. Turn is an [8]. Kirill bets $150k. Alan calls. River is a [4♠], making 3 spades on the board. Kirill moves all in and Alan instantly folds. I mean, what the heck is he doing on the turn with a call? Honestly, I can't think of any justification for it. As for Kirill being a heads-up specialist, he played nice and aggressively when they started HU play and Alan instantly retreated into his shell. But I can't say the guy's a heads-up specialist. They both didn't seem to have any sort of read on each other, and that's not because they're experts at confusing play. Did anyone else pick up the way Alan bet when he had the full house? It looked like a tell to me, but it didn't stop Kirill from going all in on a bluff. --- http://loveandcasinowar.com -- news on the world of poker gambling [ Reply to This ]

	Scattered Thoughts Before It's Over
	Authored by: Anonymous on Saturday, October 25 2003 @ 10:13 AM EDT
	Does anyone know what the hand that knocked out Gus Hansen was? They made it seem like he had a bad beat, but I didn't see what the actual cards were. [ Reply to This ]

	Scattered Thoughts Before It's Over
	Authored by: Anonymous on Monday, November 17 2003 @ 05:18 PM EST
	Yeah, Jesse May's a good call. He lead-presents the TV poker shows here in the UK and he's good - smooth style. Couple of comments on the Championship Game (shown here tonight): 1. I agree that many tyros, me included, expected a showdown between the winners of the 12 tournaments. I also agree that that wouldn't have produced very high prizemoney, but couldn't the production company stump up a few bucks to make an invitational event for just those 12 players? The show as it is is very cheap TV for them to make - surely they could put up half a million for a suitable finale to the series? 2. Some of the play was poor, especially at the end. Kirrill started the heads-up magnificently and then got trapped going all in once too often. Was it that hand where there was an obvious tell from Alan? I think he picked up [K][K] and his jaw dropped! I guess I should take into account that they'll both have been pretty tired. Adrian [ Reply to This ]

	The Four of a Kind hand
	Authored by: Anonymous on Sunday, November 23 2003 @ 11:55 AM EST
	When Alan had QQ or something of the sort and Kirill had ace high, what four of a kind came down? 4s or 7s? I can't seem to remember. [ Reply to This ]

	The Four of a Kind hand
	Authored by: Anonymous on Sunday, November 23 2003 @ 12:06 PM EST
	Alan had KK and had a full house when the 3rd 7 came down obviously, he knew he had the best hand because the other card was a 10 or something, and then on the river another 7 came, the crowd kind of chuckled and Alan was disgusted. Kirill bet out, obviously knowing it has to split if he gets called, and out of frustration Alan calls. [ Reply to This ]

	Anyone know the last hand that won the championship?
	Authored by: Anonymous on Thursday, February 26 2004 @ 11:37 AM EST
	Anyone know what hands Alan and Kiril had and what the flop, turn and river was for the very last hand from last night? Thanks! [ Reply to This ]

	Anyone know the last hand that won the championship?
	Authored by: Anonymous on Thursday, February 26 2004 @ 11:47 AM EST
	I don't remember the exact suits but: Alan had 8,5 Kiril had 8,6 Flop: 8, 5, 4. Giving Alan top two pair and Kiril the gutshot draw Turn: 7. Gives Kiril the straight but... River: 8. Game over [ Reply to This ]

	Scattered Thoughts Before It's Over
	Authored by: thatcantbe on Sunday, May 02 2004 @ 04:51 PM EDT
	I have just recently saw a replay of the Season One WPT Championship, and I'm sorry Andy, I know you are a professional, but I just disagree with what you are saying about Ted's move. In fact, I think you answered the question pretty well yourself when you said "He has to be dead certain that Alan is going to fold and that Phil won't wake up with a hand in the blind." I think it was an outstanding move by Ted, and not just because he picked off Doyle, but because if it holds up he would've taken Alan's (I think it was 90,00) raise before Doyle moved in............since I respect your play very much, I'm sure you know that there was no way Phil was playing unless he had Q's K's or Aces, and even with Queens or Kings he might not play As for Alan, I think it was a bad call............I realize he had the Jacks, but when you have a dominating chip lead, and you raise, get re-raised all in, and then the next guy goes all in too, you should throw that hand away. If he called and lost, he would have given up the chip lead to the winner, and, you have to assume there's a damn good chance that at least one of the players you're up against has you beat. I play multi-table tournaments in Atlantic City, and win a lot. I do not play big tournaments because I cannot afford them, not yet anyway. I realize you have played much more then I have, and that is why I am challenging this issue because it just doesn't make sense to me. In fact, I think that if you were Alan, I'd be very surprised if you called, I mean pocket Jacks are not that strong when you have two all in raises in front of you..............even more to the point, he moves up in the money unless they split the pot.................if Alan really thought that he was up against Q 8 and A J, he would have called instantly, but no one but Mike and Vince knew that, and I even though it held up I disagree with the call. So to get back to the original point, Ted probably assumed that Alan would fold, especially because if you watch the episode again, you see that Alan raised quite often, and Ted knows that even if Alan had a hand he probabaly wouldn't have called two all ins unless he had Queens or higher! Please comment back on this, I'm very interested in analysis of what I said. [ Reply to This ]

	Scattered Thoughts Before It's Over
	Authored by: AndyBloch on Sunday, May 02 2004 @ 11:49 PM EDT
	Reread my post. Ted's play reduced his tournament equity even if he knew that Alan had nothing and would fold and that Doyle had [Q][8]. Even if Ted was only playing for first, his play was questionable as he puts himself at risk of busting when he could have instead tried to slowly build his stack by outplaying his opponents. Ted thought for a fairly long time before calling, indicating a marginal hand, making it easy for Alan to call. I think Alan would have, and should have, called no matter how long Ted took. What range of hands could Ted and Doyle have in this situation? Alan knows that Doyle would reraise him with a lot of hands. He also knows that Ted might make a mistake and call with more hands than he should. If Alan puts Ted on [A][J] or better or [9][9] or better, and Doyle on [Q][8] or better, it's a clear call. If you think that it's correct for Ted to call with [A][J] then it's clearly correct for Alan to call with [J][J]. I think it was a clear mistake calling with [A][J], if Ted had been playing with any thought of survival. In that case, overcalling with [J][J] might have been a mistake. But Ted wasn't playing that way, and Alan knew it. Ted agonized enough that it was easy for Alan to put him on a marginal hand. [ Reply to This ]

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